Wamalwa in Nairobi--2017, 2022 or both?

The battle for the Nairobi Gubernatorial seat is a micro battle, a part of the bigger mathematics of national leadership. There are many forces involved and the recent entry of Eugene Wamalwa is a clear sign that this will be a tough battle ground.

 Jubilee began by an attempt to woo the current governor but realized that he was not willing to commit what would be seen as political suicide for him. Sonko was an option but for whatever reason, he fell out with the powers that be and he slid out of the game plan. He is definitely a force to reckon with in the City politics but as it appears, he is now swimming alone, and swimming against a very strong tide.

Enter Eugene Wamalwa. His entry is exciting pundits who believe the game plan involves more than just 2017 but also 2022. For 2017, Wamalwa is a good shot, Jubilee using a westerner to fight Cord in the city. If the cord vote is divided and added to the Mount Kenya vote, it is believed Nairobi will go Jubilee.

For 2022, it is possible Wamalwa is being groomed to play a central role, again, playing the western card to neutralize Cord. His standing in Nairobi is therefore supposed to give him a national stature as well as test his mettle in a high octane political battle. If he proves himself, the alignments for 2022 might just begin to fall in place.

Now what, Baba?

 Raila Amolo Odinga, the doyen of Kenya’s opposition politics is involved in a titanic fight of his political life. As many commentators have noted, this is the last chance he has to attempt to win the presidency. I wish I could call it a realistic chance, but unfortunately, it is far from realistic; it is improbable.

So what now, Baba? I don’t think the options are many, in fact, unless he still has a joker hidden under the table that no one knows about, his options have greatly dwindled. If he chooses to run, the biggest headache will be what team he will go with to give him any realistic chance. He has antagonized most of those he has worked with in the past and I don’t see Kalonzo and Wetangula playing ball so easily, although that cannot be ruled out.

The other option would be to support a team that can deliver the presidency with which he will have great favor. It will not give him the satisfaction of being president, but if they win, he will go down history as the most prolific king-maker. And that is not a very bad record to hold, one might say!

What about supporting a team that would be willing to let him have a go in the next election? Farfetched. He will be old then, approaching 80 and that is no time to be breaking bones in election campaigns, getting insulted by people who could be his grandchildren.

Yet another very farfetched thought—could RAO gang up with Ruto against UK in 2017? Hmmm; that sounds juicy stuff for political minds, but trust me, no card is too wild to be played when a man is up against a wall.

One thing is clear in my mind; RAO may never rule Kenya, but his contribution to the political development of this nation cannot be taken away from him. And that in my view is one good reason why RAO should consider taking a long holiday in some exotic destination and not come back until the next president is announced.

Bad politics, bad life!

Kenya's second president, Daniel Moi once said "bad politics equals poor quality of life"  I will not validate the self made professor of politics for this statement because in my view it was said in bad faith at least then, equating opposition politics with bad politics and blaming it for the suffering of the people.

But the statement merely restates the very reason why we have politics in the first place--to guide the life of society and so yes, how we do that determines how our societies evolve. That applies everywhere, in Kenya in the region, in the world.  So the world is watching as the big powers such as USA and Britain go through important transitions, watching as Kenya gets ready for another election cycle, holding our breath as South Sudan grapples with its seeming intractable conflict. May good politics carry the day and move our society forward because our very survival depends on it.